Mayor’s race left to the undecideds, poll shows

Analysis:

This story appears to be based upon a GR Press phone poll. They provide the percentages for people likely to vote in the Mayoral race and state that the it was “a high rate of participation for this kind of canvass, experts say.” What experts are they referring to? The story then cites a Heritage Hill voter who is “undecided” and she mentions some recent city issues that she has concerns about – Garfield Park, development projects and the Indian Trails Golf Course. Next 3 of the 4 candidates are cited about the last minute Get Out the Vote efforts, with jackie Miller being the excluded candidate. The story then shifts to a discussion of how Heartwell and Tormala are courting the Democratic vote and also how they “differ.” The rest of the story continues to focus on Tormala and Heartwell. The last sentence provides readers with information on how much money Heartwell, Tormala and Rinck have spent so far, but no information on what they spent the money on. Readers should ask themselves if this story provided information for potential voters to make an informaed decision about the August 7 election. To date, we have not documented any local news coverage that would provide voters with a serious review of the voting records for incumbents or those candidates who have held elected office, nor any details on platforms and proposals if elected.

Story:

With only two days left before Tuesday’s citywide primary election, it appears undecided voters will determine whether there is an outright winner or a November runoff in the mayoral race.

A Press-sponsored telephone canvass last week of every likely voter household in the city indicated 20 percent are still undecided. Likely voters were identified from lists of those who voted in similar low-turnout elections in the recent past, such as school elections and off-year primaries.

Incumbent Mayor George Heartwell is favored by 44 percent of the likely voters, while 25 percent said they would vote for 2nd Ward City Commissioner Rick Tormala, and 8 percent said they would vote for Jim Rinck, a longtime member of the Grand Rapids Board of Education. Barely 2 percent of those participating said they would vote for a fourth candidate, retail clerk Jackie Miller.

More than 19 percent of people answering in 13,780 households, or 2,665, took the survey, a high rate of participation for this kind of canvass, experts say.

Heartwell, who is seeking a second term, can win outright Tuesday if a bulk of those undecided voters go his way and give him more than 50 percent of the overall vote.

Tormala’s challenge will be to land enough undecided voters to force a runoff election between himself and Heartwell in the Nov. 6 general election.

Heritage Hill resident Diana Barrett, 71, said she will vote but remains undecided.

“I’m just not thrilled with a lot of the secrecy,” Barrett said, echoing concerns of other undecided voters frustrated with Heartwell for a confidentiality agreement he signed for a development project and for his support of a failed proposal to use land at Garfield Park for a Salvation Army Center.

Some also cited a failed attempt to sell land at the Indian Trails Golf Course, a plan also supported by Tormala initially.

The high number of undecided voters means candidates will pump up get-out-the-vote efforts in the final two days.

“Getting out the vote has been a goal of our campaign from the get-go,” said Heartwell, who planned to deploy volunteers for “lit drops” from the West Side Complex and Garfield Park on Saturday morning.

Tormala said he is heartened by the fact Heartwell did not get an outright majority in the survey.

“The only poll that’s going to count is Tuesday, and I see the momentum shifting toward us,” Tormala said.

Rinck, who has been the top vote-getter in citywide school elections in the past, was incredulous at the numbers.

“It doesn’t track with what I’m hearing on the street,” he said.

He also dismissed any suggestion that he is a spoiler in the race, despite some similarities in reputation with Tormala. Both men strike populist chords and profess to speak for those without a voice.

Rinck said he thinks he pulls more votes from Heartwell than he does from Tormala and pointed out that he entered the race in January, four months before Tormala announced.

While the mayor and city commissioners are officially nonpartisan in Grand Rapids, Tormala and Heartwell rely on core support among Democrats in a city that has trended Democratic in the past several presidential, gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections.

Still, the candidates represent disparate wings of the party, with Tormala, a former staffer for Democratic U.S. Senator Carl Levin, enjoying support among old-line Democrats in conservative Catholic, anti-abortion West Side precincts and union households across the city. The survey affirmed Heartwell’s appeal among younger progressives in Eastown and moderate Republicans on the Southeast Side and the city’s far eastern neighborhoods.

Heartwell’s biggest challenge will be to get people to the polls in the 3rd Ward, where the Press survey indicated he is favored by 56 percent of likely voters. The 3rd Ward is Heartwell’s political base. He served as a 3rd Ward commissioner for two terms in the 1990s.

Based on absentee voters returns, City Clerk Terri Hegarty anticipates more than 15 percent of the city’s 120,000 registered voters will turn out, which would be high for a city primary.

Hegarty predicted voter turnout will be higher in the 1st and 2nd wards, where signs proliferate on lawns and door-to-door campaigning has been heavy in high-profile races for two open City Commission seats.

Third Ward voters will not choose their city commissioner until November because incumbent Elias Lumpkins is unopposed.

Besides the mayor’s race, the only other issue on the ballot citywide is a millage request for Grand Rapids Community College.

Tormala’s support was weakest in the 3rd Ward, where 16 percent of the respondents chose him, according to the phone survey. He was stronger in the 1st and 2nd wards, getting 29 percent and 30 percent, respectively.

To get out his voters, Tormala is counting on help from unions representing the city’s police officers and firefighters. They will continue to work phone banks and pass out literature on his behalf.

In past City Commission elections, Tormala also has counted on telephone banks and literature drops by The Friends of Labor, a coalition of local unions.

This year, the unions that make up Friends of Labor are going their own way, according to their director, Buck Geno. Several are expected to make calls on Tormala’s behalf, he said.

The survey results also track with candidate spending, as filings showed Heartwell spending $46,000 through July 27 to Tormala’s $12,000 and Rinck’s $4,000.